How the 2024 election could affect companies with immigrant talent

Immigration has always been a hot-button issue during election seasons, and this year organizations are once again left to wonder how November's results will impact employees who are not U.S. citizens.

Eighty-nine percent of U.S. companies currently employ workers from other countries, according to a recent poll conducted by immigration services provider Envoy Global. What's more, 94% of businesses said that if there were fewer restrictions around immigration, they would recruit more foreign nationals. But before organizations make any moves, they should be considering how the 2024 presidential elections could affect those plans. 

"The current landscape is pretty favorable for employers and foreign nationals right now, as both continue to benefit from the many policy changes that the current administration has put in place over the last few years," says Tiffany Derentz, senior counsel and head of BAL, an immigration law firm. "But right now, I would say we're in a bit of a waiting period with the election on the horizon." 

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Currently, there are a few employer-sponsored visa options available to foreign nationals and immigrant talent, the most common of which are the H-1B or L-1, which allow companies to sponsor skilled foreign workers for specific jobs. Over the last four years, there's been a relatively well-received push for more open-ended visas such as the EB3, which allows foreign workers to live and work permanently in the country without some of the more stringent requirements of the H-1B. 

Much of that progress, however, has been made possible by unique circumstances triggered by the pandemic, combined with policies put in place by the Biden-Harris administration, according to Derentz. 

"The workforce was backlogged," Derentz recalls. "As a result, a number of policies were put in place to streamline and make the immigration process more efficient to try and reduce some of those backlogs. But we won't really know what to expect of those policies from an immigration perspective anymore until we know the outcome of that presidential election." 

Each outcome has its own set of consequences, according to Derentz — both good and bad. Should Democratic nominees Vice President Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win, the public should expect much of the same outlook to transfer from this term to the next. In the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, ​​535 immigration affirmative actions were passed, according to the Migration Policy Institute, most of which have made it so that legal immigration is returning to and in some cases surpassing pre-pandemic levels. 

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As a result, Derentz expects to see a continuation of efforts like humanitarian relief programs and investments in immigration agencies if Harris is elected. And while she hasn't hinted at any kind of employee-specific immigration policies, Derentz feels optimistic that many of the aforementioned initiatives will reflect favorably on businesses, too. 

If President Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance are elected, the changes will be more aggressive in limiting immigration, according to Derentz. 

"We expect to see broader use of the presidential authority through executive orders and presidential proclamations," she says. "If you think back to 2017, there were a number of travel bans that effectively shut down travel for individuals from certain countries that were upheld by the Supreme Court. We expect to see another version of that happening again."

President Trump's first term also saw enhanced vetting, which led to more closely scrutinized visa applicants, delaying the process by months, and targeted specific nationals and specific visa classifications in the process. In his first term, President Trump made 472 administrative changes, according to the Migration Policy Institute. In those changes the institute says humanitarian protections were "severely diminished," the U.S.-Mexico border became more closed off, immigration enforcement "appeared more random," and "legal immigration became out of reach for many." 

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Derentz adds that under a new administration, it's expected that the Republican party would narrow eligibility for employment-based immigration programs and place stricter limits on things like a foreign employee's spouse's ability to work, which would impact any employer that does have employment-based immigration needs. 

"Any sort of change in these policies is likely going to increase processing times much more than they did under the first Trump administration," she says.

Regardless of the outcome, employers will still have a lot to consider come November. In fact, 67% of employers said they are already doing as much as they can with existing resources to protect the work status of foreign national employees prior to the election, according to a survey from BAL, with an additional 15% saying they are expanding resources. 

In an effort to better support some of those employers, BAL has built out an Election Resource Center. Through their initiative, BAL offers free insights and resources to prepare leaders with immigration programs, including a checklist with practical steps a business can take to communicate and protect foreign national employees. Employers should be proactive about their strategies if they want to avoid accidentally harming their workforce, according to Derentz, whether or not they have a large population of foreign national employees. 

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"It's important for the businesses and HR leaders to understand the impacts that a change in any administration can have," she says. "Knowing what their community looks like and assessing what those impacts might look like for them as a business is obviously in their best interest, because that allows them to take that information and potentially protect their workforce." 

Derentz urges employers to start having conversations with their foreign national employees as soon as possible and discuss ways to protect their employment in the event policies change, such as changing certain positions to remote jobs if possible. She also stresses that organizations should take stock of the potential turnover numbers should they have to end employment for their foreign employee base, and have contingency plans in place to ensure a smooth transition. 

"These immigrants contribute to the U.S. economy and they propel us as a nation forward in everything that we do," she says. "On top of the business imperatives, there should be a drive to feel good about what you're doing in response and to think about it on a larger scale."