Will small businesses survive the delta variant?

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Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Small businesses have already endured more than their fair share of hardship over the past year and a half. Now the delta variant threatens even more uncertainty.

Alignable, the largest online referral network for small businesses, recently released August’s Road to Recovery Report, which surveyed over 5,000 small business owners in the U.S. and Canada, revealing a revived wave of anxiety for many. According to the report, 47% are afraid they will be forced to close once again — the highest percentage since the onset of the pandemic.

“I think the number one concern that business owners have is, what is this going to mean in terms of people feeling safe, coming to my business,” says Eric Groves, co-founder and CEO of Alignable.

Read More: Small businesses recovering despite pandemic

Additionally, as COVID-19 brings many workers to their breaking point in terms of physical and mental health, the U.S. is witnessing a record-breaking labor shortage. The U.S. Labor Department reported over 10 million job openings in June.

Small businesses are experiencing the brunt of this unprecedented number. With a 9% increase since last month’s survey, 59% of small business owners are struggling to rehire or find new employees. Restaurants are the most battered, with 80% of industry operations understaffed.

“For a lot of small businesses, they're already paying way well above minimum wage,” says Groves. “Because the way that they compete is by providing above and beyond what you would get at a big box or a big restaurant type provider.”

Read More: No degree, no problem: Workers without degrees may be the key to tackling company labor shortages

While big corporations like Amazon, Bank of America and Walmart have recently increased their minimum wages to combat a constricted labor market, small businesses will not have the same financial flexibility to boost their wages even higher.

Many small businesses are watching vaccination numbers in their community. But with only a little over half of the U.S. population fully vaccinated, vaccines do not guarantee an avoidance of closures or an increased labor force, especially as growing protests erupt over COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

“The states that are in the best position are the ones where they have the highest percentage of people who have been vaccinated,” says Groves. “And I imagine that people in certain states feel a lot safer than others.”

In response to the upsurge in COVID-19 cases, small business owners are taking the vaccine into consideration as part of their hiring process. Seventy percent would like to know a potential employee’s vaccination status, and 61% confessed to being more likely to hire those who are vaccinated.

Read More: Small businesses are turning to employee benefits to retain talent

Still, there is only so much owners can do without community support. Groves notes that the pandemic has only made it harder for consumers to choose small businesses — essentially visiting local shops in person — instead of waiting for packages from the safety of their homes.

This spells trouble for both small businesses and their communities.

“The challenge when I spend a hundred dollars on Amazon is that all of the money that's made leaves my community,” Groves says. “But if I take that a hundred dollars and I go down to the local store and I spend it there, about 60% of it will actually stay and flow through my community.”

Ultimately, small businesses will be at the mercy of not only government mandates and COVID case numbers, but human behavior.

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